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drillbit — #peakoil @ irc.efnet.org
<drillbit> !help — command list sent via PM Quick Prices: !s !g !p !pd !c !o !m Stocks & Indices: !stocks !q !stock Metals: !metals !gold !silver !copper !goldreserves !high !realpricing Energy & Oil: !oil !peakoil !spr !shortage !collapse Markets & Risk: !doom !vix !crypto !food !weather !buffett Economy: !inflation !debt !housing !unemployment !yields !wages !credit !money !savings !manufacturing !crash Central Banks: !fed !repo !liquidity !btfp !custody !swaps !fedbs !ecb Composite Intelligence: !regime !stress !cover !whobuys !hours Channel: !seen   Every reply is 1-4 lines. Numbers are fetched live from CNBC, EIA, FRED, the Fed H.4.1 and the ECB Data Portal, never typed in. Colours: green = up | red = down | yellow = warning | thresholds are printed next to the number they apply to.

More Than Just a Chat Room

The #peakoil channel has been a gathering place for energy analysts, traders, preppers, and critical thinkers who understand that resource depletion isn't a theory — it's math.

Our custom bot, drillbit, pulls live data from the same sources Wall Street uses: CNBC's quote service, the EIA's weekly petroleum reports, FRED, the Federal Reserve's H.4.1 balance sheet release and the ECB Data Portal. Every threshold it prints is either a documented rule (the Sahm rule, Buffett's scale) or a percentile of that series' own five-year history.

The difference? Bloomberg charges $24,000/year. We charge nothing. Join the conversation and see what the mainstream financial media won't tell you.

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Why Join #peakoil?

A community of informed skeptics discussing what the mainstream won't touch.

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Peak Oil Analysis

Track SPR levels, production declines, and supply dynamics. Understand the energy cliff before the crowd with EIA data at your command.

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Crisis Indicators

Recession probability, debt levels, liquidity stress, and systemic risk metrics. !regime, !stress, !doom and !crash score the cycle against its own history instead of a pundit's opinion.

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Bot Commands

53 commands. Click any one to see what it tells you, how to read it, the data behind it, and a real reply from today.

💡 How to Use Commands

Once you're in the chat, type a command like !oil or !q AAPL and press Enter. The bot (drillbit) replies in 1-4 lines with live data. Commands are case-insensitive and the thresholds behind every verdict are printed next to the number.

Quick Prices 7

One line, one number. The fastest way to check a price.

!sSilver spot price in USD per troy ounce with today's change.

Silver spot price in USD per troy ounce with today's change.

How to read it: Green arrow = up on the day, red = down. Spot is the London/OTC price, not the COMEX future.

<you> !s
<drillbit>Silver: $67.04/oz ▲ +1.72 (+2.64%)

Data: CNBC XAG=

!gGold spot price per ounce with today's change.

Gold spot price per ounce with today's change.

How to read it: Same conventions as !s. For the full picture (futures curve, ratios, DXY) use !gold.

<you> !g
<drillbit>Gold: $4,488.09/oz ▲ +101.80 (+2.32%)

Data: CNBC XAU=

!pPlatinum spot price per ounce.

Platinum spot price per ounce.

How to read it: Platinum below gold (Au/Pt > 1) has been the norm since 2015; !metals shows the ratio.

<you> !p
<drillbit>Platinum: $1,828.91/oz ▲ +69.00 (+3.92%)

Data: CNBC XPT=

!pdPalladium spot price per ounce.

Palladium spot price per ounce.

How to read it: Thin market, big daily moves are normal.

<you> !pd
<drillbit>Palladium: $1,425.25/oz ▲ +79.87 (+5.94%)

Data: CNBC XPD=

!cCopper, COMEX front-month future, USD per pound.

Copper, COMEX front-month future, USD per pound.

How to read it: There is no true copper spot quote on CNBC, so this is the most-active futures contract. Copper is the growth bellwether: !copper shows the term structure.

<you> !c
<drillbit>Copper (COMEX front): $6.6785/lb ▲ +0.0855 (+1.30%)

Data: CNBC @HG.1

!oWTI crude, front-month future, USD per barrel.

WTI crude, front-month future, USD per barrel.

How to read it: Brent, products and the curve are in !oil.

<you> !o
<drillbit>WTI Crude: $91.42/bbl ▲ +0.41 (+0.45%)

Data: CNBC @CL.1

!mAll five metals on one line: silver, gold, platinum, palladium, copper.

All five metals on one line: silver, gold, platinum, palladium, copper.

How to read it: Arrows only, no dollar changes. Use !metals for ratios and futures premiums.

<you> !m
<drillbit>Metals: Au $4,488.09 ▲+2.32% | Pt $1,827.79 ▲+3.86% | Pd $1,424.45 ▲+5.88% | Cu $6.6785/lb ▲+1.30% (Cu = COMEX front)

Data: CNBC XAG= XAU= XPT= XPD= @HG.1

📈 Stocks & Indices 3

Any US-listed stock, ETF, index or future, plus a name search.

!stocksOne-line market overview: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the VIX with percent…

One-line market overview: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the VIX with percent moves.

How to read it: Tagged (closed) outside regular hours. VIX moving opposite to the indices is normal; VIX rising with the indices is the tell.

<you> !stocks
<drillbit>Markets: S&P 500 7,755.12 ▲+1.15% | DJIA 53,689.76 ▲+1.18% | NASDAQ 26,636.428 ▲+1.60% | RUSS 2K 2,968.175 ▲+0.51% | VIX 14.57 ▼-4.14%

Data: CNBC .SPX .DJI .IXIC .RUT .VIX

!q SYMBOL [SYMBOL SYMBOL]Quote for any CNBC symbol: price, change, volume, market cap, P/E, 52-week range, and…

Quote for any CNBC symbol: price, change, volume, market cap, P/E, 52-week range, and the pre/after-hours print when the session is closed. Up to three symbols on one line.

How to read it: Symbols are CNBC style: AAPL, .SPX, @CL.1 (WTI), XAU= (gold spot), BTC.CM= (bitcoin). !quote is an alias. Unknown symbol → "no quote (try !stock <name>)".

<you> !q AAPL
<drillbit>AAPL (Apple Inc.) $327.34 ▲ +2.38 (+0.73%) · vol 20.9M · cap 4.777T · P/E 37.67 · 52wk 225.95-344.57

Data: CNBC quote service

!stock COMPANY NAMESearch by company name, then quote the best match.

Search by company name, then quote the best match. Prefers US common stock over ETFs, preferred shares and foreign listings, and lists up to three alternatives.

How to read it: "!stock alphabet" gives GOOGL and mentions GOOG. Multi-word names are retried on the first word if the full phrase misses.

<you> !stock exxon
<drillbit>XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corp) $163.00 ▼ -1.15 (-0.70%) · vol 6.3M · cap 670.242B · P/E 21.02 · 52wk 108.35-176.41

Data: CNBC symbol lookup · CNBC quote service

🥇 Metals 7

Spot, futures curve, carry and the ratios that flag stress.

!metalsThree lines: spot prices for Au/Ag/Pt/Pd/Cu, the key ratios, and the futures premium…

Three lines: spot prices for Au/Ag/Pt/Pd/Cu, the key ratios, and the futures premium (implied carry) for gold, silver and platinum.

How to read it: Au/Ag above 80 means silver is cheap versus its 50-year mean near 60. Au/Cu above 600 lb per oz is the fear reading. A negative futures premium (backwardation) means someone wants the metal now: physical squeeze.

<you> !metals
<drillbit>Spot Au $4,488.09 ▲+2.32% | Ag $67.04 ▲+2.65% | Pt $1,833.53 ▲+4.18% | Pd $1,425.25 ▲+5.94% | Cu $6.6800/lb ▲+1.32% (COMEX front)Ratios Au/Ag 66.9 (>80 Ag cheap, <50 rich; 50-yr mean ~60) | Au/Pt 2.45 (>1 = Pt below Au) | Pt/Pd 1.29 | Au/Cu 672 lb/oz fear (>600 fear, <400 growth)Futures premium (front-spot = implied carry) Au +46.81 (+1.04%, +3.3%/yr, Dec'26) | Ag +0.72 (+1.08%, +3.4%/yr, Dec'26) | Pt +5.37 (+0.29%, +2.0%/yr, Oct'26) — all contango = no physical squeeze

Data: CNBC XAU= XAG= XPT= XPD= @HG.1 @GC.1 @SI.1 @PL.1

!goldGold spot and COMEX future, 52-week range, macro drivers (Au/Ag, dollar index, 10-year…

Gold spot and COMEX future, 52-week range, macro drivers (Au/Ag, dollar index, 10-year yield, GLD), and the front three contract months with annualised carry.

How to read it: Carry near the funding rate (2 to 5%/yr) is normal contango. Above 8%/yr is steep; below zero is backwardation and a shortage signal.

<you> !gold
<drillbit>Gold spot $4,488.09 ▲ +101.80 (+2.32%) | COMEX Dec'26 $4,535.20 ▲+2.73% | 52wk $3,574-5,586Macro Au/Ag 66.9 | DXY 98.89 ▼-0.71% | US10Y 4.754% | GLD $411.28 ▲+2.11%Curve Dec'26 4,535.20 → Jan'27 4,550.70 → Feb'27 4,571.50 | front-spot +47.11 (+1.05%, +3.3%/yr to Dec 29) contango, normal carry (<0 = backwardation/shortage, >8%/yr = steep)

Data: CNBC XAU= @GC.1 @GC.2 @GC.3 .DXY US10Y GLD

!silverSilver spot and future, SLV, the gold/silver ratio with context, and the futures curve…

Silver spot and future, SLV, the gold/silver ratio with context, and the futures curve with carry.

How to read it: Silver moves 1.5 to 2x gold on the day. Ratio above 80 = silver cheap, below 50 = silver rich.

<you> !silver
<drillbit>Silver spot $67.04 ▲ +1.72 (+2.64%) | COMEX Dec'26 $67.77 ▲+3.52% | 52wk $40.80-121.79 | SLV $60.56 ▲+2.51%Au/Ag 66.9 normal (>80 = Ag cheap, <50 = Ag rich; 50-yr mean ~60)Curve Dec'26 67.77 → Jan'27 68.25 → Feb'27 68.33 | front-spot +0.72 (+1.08%, +3.4%/yr to Dec 29) contango, normal carry (<0 = backwardation/shortage, >8%/yr = steep)

Data: CNBC XAG= XAU= @SI.1 @SI.2 @SI.3 SLV

!copperCOMEX copper front month, 52-week range, the term structure across three contracts, and…

COMEX copper front month, 52-week range, the term structure across three contracts, and the gold/copper ratio.

How to read it: Contango (later months higher) = supply is fine. Backwardation = someone is short metal today. Au/Cu above 600 has coincided with every growth scare since 2008; below 400 is a boom.

<you> !copper
<drillbit>Copper COMEX Dec'26 $6.6800/lb ▲ +0.0870 (+1.32%) | 52wk $4.49-6.87 (front-month future; no copper spot on CNBC)Term structure Dec'26 6.6800 → Jan'27 6.6985 → Feb'27 6.7320 | Feb'27-Dec'26 +5.20¢/lb (+0.78%) contango = supply OK (>+0.5¢ contango, <-0.5¢ backwardation)Au/Cu 672 lb of copper per oz of gold ($/oz ÷ $/lb) fear/recession signal (>600 fear, 400-600 neutral, <400 growth)

Data: CNBC @HG.1 @HG.2 @HG.3 XAU=

!goldreservesOfficial central-bank gold holdings (World Gold Council tonnage) valued at today's…

Official central-bank gold holdings (World Gold Council tonnage) valued at today's spot: top eight holders, the Eurosystem total, and the Fed's book value versus market value.

How to read it: The US Treasury still books its gold at $42.22/oz. The ratio between that and spot is the size of the unrealised revaluation.

<you> !goldreserves
<drillbit>CB gold (WGC Dec 2024 tonnes × spot $4,488.09): US 8,134t $1.17T | DE 3,352t $483.7B | IT 2,452t $353.8B | FR 2,437t $351.6B | RU 2,335t $336.9B | CN 2,280t $329.0B | CH 1,040t $150.1B | IN 876t $126.4BEurosystem (ECB+DE+IT+FR+NL) 9,360t $1.35T, marked to market quarterly | Fed books 8,134t at $42.22/oz = $11.0B vs $1.17T at spot (106×)World official sector ~36,000t = $5.19T at spot = 22% of US M2 ($23.2T, Jul 2026)

Data: World Gold Council table (Dec 2024) · CNBC XAU= · FRED M2SL

!highRunning all-time-high tracker for gold and silver: the high, when it printed, and…

Running all-time-high tracker for gold and silver: the high, when it printed, and today's price versus it. The bot also announces new highs in the channel.

How to read it: "= at high" means the current print is the record.

<you> !high
<drillbit>Gold high $4,485.99 (2026-09-03 18:11) now $4,485.99 (= at high) | Silver high $67.04 (2026-09-03 18:11) now $67.04 (= at high)

Data: CNBC XAU= XAG= · scripts/metal_highs.dat

!realpricingAssets priced in gold ounces instead of dollars: the S&P 500, the Dow, a barrel of WTI,…

Assets priced in gold ounces instead of dollars: the S&P 500, the Dow, a barrel of WTI, the median new home, and the dollars of M2 per ounce of US official gold.

How to read it: If the S&P is flat in dollars but falling in ounces, the "gain" was the dollar losing. M2 per ounce is the price gold would need to fully back the money supply.

<you> !realpricing
<drillbit>In gold (Au $4,485.99 ▲+2.27%): S&P 500 7,754.45 = 1.73 oz (52wk 1.41-1.74 @ today's Au) | Dow 53,689.56 = 11.97 oz (52wk 10.04-12.20 @ today's Au)WTI $91.46 = 2.04 oz/100 bbl (52wk 1.23-2.66 @ today's Au) | New-home median $410,700 (Q2 2026) = 91.6 oz, $ price -1.3% y/yM2 vs US gold $23.2T (Jul 2026) ÷ 261.5M oz (8,133.5t) = $88,788/oz to back M2, 1y ago $84,228 (+5.4%) | spot covers 5.1% of M2 — paper 20× the metal

Data: CNBC XAU= .SPX .DJI @CL.1 · FRED MSPUS M2SL

🛢️ Energy & Oil 5

The core of the channel: production, inventories, reserves and the curve.

!oilWTI, Brent and the spread; RBOB gasoline, heating oil and natural gas; the 3-2-1 crack…

WTI, Brent and the spread; RBOB gasoline, heating oil and natural gas; the 3-2-1 crack spread and the WTI one-to-six month curve.

How to read it: Crack spread above $30/bbl means refiners are printing money and product is tight. M1−M6 backwardation above $3 means barrels are wanted now, not later.

<you> !oil
<drillbit>WTI $91.46/bbl ▲ +0.45 (+0.49%) | Brent $95.54/bbl ▼ -0.09 (-0.09%) | Brent-WTI +4.08RBOB $3.134/gal ▲+0.97% | Heating oil $4.616/gal ▼-1.41% | NatGas $2.910/MMBtu ▼-1.56%3-2-1 crack $60.91/bbl (>$30 = refiners printing) | WTI M1-M6 +13.79 backwardation (>$3 = prompt tightness) | Barrels scarce now and refiners printing. Trapped.

Data: CNBC @CL.1 @CL.6 @BZ.1 @RB.1 @HO.1 @NG.1

!peakoilUS crude production from the EIA weekly report against its 52-week and 5-year highs,…

US crude production from the EIA weekly report against its 52-week and 5-year highs, WTI/Brent, SPR fill, the futures curve, the crack spread, and a five-signal supply-stress score.

How to read it: "AT RECORD" needs output within 0.5% of the 5-year max. Stress score counts: backwardation > $3, crack > $25, WTI > $80, SPR under half full, production falling year on year.

<you> !peakoil
<drillbit>US crude output: 13,862 kb/d (wk of Aug 28) | 52wk high 13,862 | YoY +3.3% | AT RECORD (≥99.5% of 5yr max)WTI $91.44 ▲+0.47% | Brent $95.54 ▼-0.09% | Brent-WTI +4.10 | SPR 286.6M bbl (40.1% of 714M cap)Curve: M1−M6 +13.77 backwardation (>$3 = prompt tightness) | M1−M12 +19.77 | 3-2-1 crack $60.93/bbl (>$25 = product squeeze)Verdict: Supply stress (4/5: backwardation, crack >$25, WTI >$80, SPR <50%). Output still at record, so not geology yet — it's the barrels you can't buy today.

Data: EIA WCRFPUS2 WCSSTUS1 · CNBC @CL.1 @CL.6 @CL.12 @BZ.1 @RB.1 @HO.1

!sprStrategic Petroleum Reserve: barrels, percent of the 714M capacity, the weekly change…

Strategic Petroleum Reserve: barrels, percent of the 714M capacity, the weekly change and the change versus one year ago.

How to read it: Draws above 1M bbl per week are a release programme, not maintenance.

<you> !spr
<drillbit>SPR: 286.6M bbl (wk of Aug 28) | 40.1% of 714M capacity | week ▼ -3.1M | vs 1yr ago ▼ -118.1M (-29.2%)Verdict: Draining >1M bbl/wk — that's a release programme, not maintenance. Under half full: the buffer is the headline.

Data: EIA WCSSTUS1

!shortageCrude, gasoline, distillate, propane and natural-gas inventories as a percent of their…

Crude, gasoline, distillate, propane and natural-gas inventories as a percent of their same-week five-year average.

How to read it: Below 90% is tight, below 80% is a shortage, above 110% a glut. Distillate is the one to watch: diesel shortages hit freight and farming first.

<you> !shortage
<drillbit>Stocks vs 5yr avg (wk of Aug 28): Crude 424.5M (100% of 5yr) normal | Gasoline 205.7M (94% of 5yr) normal | Distillate 104.2M (86% of 5yr) tightPropane 107.4M (124% of 5yr) glut | NatGas 3,214 Bcf (104% of 5yr) normal | Verdict: Tight: Distillate <90% of 5yr. Diesel first, everything else follows.

Data: EIA WCESTUS1 WGTSTUS1 WDISTUS1 WPRSTUS1 NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF

!collapseFour pass/fail crisis indicators: SPR under 50% of capacity, crude stocks under 90% of…

Four pass/fail crisis indicators: SPR under 50% of capacity, crude stocks under 90% of the 5-year average, production falling more than 1% year on year, and WTI backwardation above $3.

How to read it: Score out of four. Two failing is High; buffers are thinning even if prices look calm.

<you> !collapse
<drillbit>SPR 286.6M bbl = 40.1% of 714M cap FAIL (<50%) | Crude stocks 424.5M = 100% of 5yr avg ok (<90%) (wk of Aug 28)US output 13,862 kb/d YoY +3.3% ok (<-1%) | WTI curve M1−M6 +13.79 FAIL (>+$3 backwardation)Collapse score: 2/4 failing → High. Buffers thinning.

Data: EIA WCSSTUS1 WCESTUS1 WCRFPUS2 · CNBC @CL.1 @CL.6

📊 Markets & Risk 6

Volatility, fear gauges, cross-asset scores.

!doomEight binary tail-risk tests scored out of eight: VIX > 25, VVIX > 110, inverted 10y-2y…

Eight binary tail-risk tests scored out of eight: VIX > 25, VVIX > 110, inverted 10y-2y curve, WTI backwardation > $5, gold up > 2% on the day, S&P down > 2%, a dollar move over 1%, high-yield spread > 5%.

How to read it: 0-1 LOW, 2-3 ELEVATED, 4-5 HIGH, 6+ EXTREME. The fired tests are named so you can see what is driving the score.

<you> !doom
<drillbit>Doom 2/8 ELEVATED (0-1 LOW, 2-3 ELEVATED, 4-5 HIGH, 6+ EXTREME) — fired: WTI M1-M6, GoldVIX 14.5 (>25) | VVIX 85 (>110) | 10y-2y +42bp (<0 inverted) | WTI M1-M6 +13.79 (>$5 backwardation)!Gold +2.27% (>+2%)! | S&P +1.15% (<-2%) | DXY -0.71% (|move|>1%) | HY OAS 2.66% Sep 2 (>5%)

Data: CNBC .VIX .VVIX US10Y US2Y @CL.1 @CL.6 XAU= .SPX .DXY · FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2

!vixVIX and VVIX with a regime label, the four main indices, and a divergence note when…

VIX and VVIX with a regime label, the four main indices, and a divergence note when volatility disagrees with price.

How to read it: Under 15 complacent, 15-20 normal, 20-30 stressed, over 30 panic. VIX rising on an up day is the warning.

<you> !vix
<drillbit>VIX 14.52 ▼ -0.68 (-4.47%) complacent (<15 complacent, 15-20 normal, 20-30 stressed, >30 panic) | VVIX 85.1 ▼-1.29%S&P 7,755 ▲+1.16% | Nasdaq 26,637 ▲+1.60% | Dow 53,693 ▲+1.19% | Russell 2,968 ▲+0.49%Read: VIX <15 and S&P +1.2%: melt-up, nobody's hedged.

Data: CNBC .VIX .VVIX .SPX .IXIC .DJI .RUT

!cryptoBTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC with daily moves and the BTC/ETH ratio.

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC with daily moves and the BTC/ETH ratio.

How to read it: Prices from Coin Metrics via CNBC, 24/7.

<you> !crypto
<drillbit>BTC $81,241 ▲ +4,033 (+5.22%) | ETH $2,506.63 ▲ +118.88 (+4.98%) | BTC/ETH 32.4SOL $105.05 ▲+5.83% | XRP $1.4700 ▲+9.18% | DOGE $0.0896 ▲+10.32% | LTC $51.34 ▲+3.27%

Data: CNBC BTC.CM= ETH.CM= SOL.CM= XRP.CM= DOGE.CM= LTC.CM=

!foodCorn, wheat, soybeans, live cattle, lean hogs, coffee, sugar, cotton, cocoa and orange…

Corn, wheat, soybeans, live cattle, lean hogs, coffee, sugar, cotton, cocoa and orange juice futures with correct units.

How to read it: Grains in $/bushel, livestock and coffee in $/lb, sugar and cotton in ¢/lb, cocoa in $/tonne.

<you> !food
<drillbit>Corn $5.41/bu ▼-0.46% | Wheat $7.53/bu ▼-2.78% | Soybeans $13.17/bu ▲+0.52% | Cattle $2.14/lb ▲+1.94% | Hogs $0.83/lb ▼-0.45%Coffee $2.95/lb ▼-1.07% | Sugar 17.99¢/lb ▼-3.80% | Cotton 86.71¢/lb ▼-2.50% | Cocoa $6,140/t ▼-2.12% | OJ $1.55/lb ▲+3.78%

Data: CNBC @C.1 @W.1 @S.1 @LC.1 @LH.1 @KC.1 @SB.1 @CT.1 @CC.1 @OJ.1

!weather"Market weather": a composite of risk appetite (VIX, equities, dollar), inflation…

"Market weather": a composite of risk appetite (VIX, equities, dollar), inflation pressure (oil, yields) and uncertainty (VVIX, gold), each component scored and shown.

How to read it: Fair/Partly cloudy/Overcast/Rain/Storm from the risk score. Not meteorology.

<you> !weather
<drillbit>Market Weather: Fair — RISK-ON (risk +5) | stable prices (infl 0) | normal uncertainty (unc 0)Risk: VIX 14.5 → +2 | S&P/NDX +1.25% → +2 | DXY -0.71% → +1Inflation: WTI +0.49% → 0 | 10Y 4.75% -0.83% → 0 | Uncertainty: VVIX 85 → 0 | Gold +2.27% → 0

Data: CNBC .VIX .SPX .NDX .DXY @CL.1 US10Y .VVIX XAU=

!buffettThe Buffett indicator: total US corporate equities from the Fed's flow of funds divided…

The Buffett indicator: total US corporate equities from the Fed's flow of funds divided by GDP, with the value a year ago, the record, and a same-day estimate scaled by the S&P.

How to read it: Buffett's own scale: under 100% fair, 100-150% overvalued, above 150% strongly overvalued.

<you> !buffett
<drillbit>Buffett indicator: US corporate equities $69.5T / GDP $31.9T = 218% (Q1 2026) | 1y ago 198% | record 229% (Q4 2025)Now (est): ~259% (S&P 7,755 vs 6,529 at quarter end, +19%) | Buffett scale: <100% fair, 100-150% overvalued, >150% strongly overvalued → strongly overvalued. Nothing is cheap.

Data: FRED NCBEILQ027S GDP SP500 · CNBC .SPX

💰 Economy 11

FRED data with the units right and the comparisons fetched, not remembered.

!inflationHeadline and core CPI year on year, the last month annualised, and the real policy rate…

Headline and core CPI year on year, the last month annualised, and the real policy rate (Fed funds minus CPI).

How to read it: Three-month annualised above the twelve-month rate means inflation is re-accelerating. A negative real rate means policy is stimulative whatever the Fed says.

<you> !inflation
<drillbit>CPI (Jul 2026): headline +3.5% YoY (last month annualised +0.9%) | core +2.8% YoY (annualised +2.6%)Real policy rate (Aug 2026): Fed funds 3.63% − CPI 3.5% = +0.1% | core +0.8pt vs the 2% targetVerdict: core within ~1pt of target and real rate positive — policy is restrictive for now.

Data: FRED CPIAUCSL CPILFESL FEDFUNDS

!debtTotal federal debt, debt to GDP with the year-ago comparison, actual interest paid as a…

Total federal debt, debt to GDP with the year-ago comparison, actual interest paid as a share of federal receipts, the average rate on the debt, and what each extra point of rate costs.

How to read it: Interest above 25% of receipts is the fiscal-dominance zone: rates can't rise without the budget breaking.

<you> !debt
<drillbit>US debt (Q1 2026): $39.1T | GDP $31.9T | debt/GDP 122.6% (1y ago 120.5%, +2.0pt)Interest (Q2 2026): $1,247B/yr = 33.4% of federal receipts $3,737B (1y ago 33.6%) | avg rate on the debt 3.19%, 10y now 4.79%Every +1pt on the average rate = +$391B/yr = +10.5pt of receipts. Interest above 25% of receipts: can't raise rates, can't stop borrowing. Trapped.

Data: FRED GFDEBTN GDP A091RC1Q027SBEA W006RC1Q027SBEA DGS10

!housingMedian new-home price, 30-year mortgage rate, price to median income, the monthly…

Median new-home price, 30-year mortgage rate, price to median income, the monthly payment as a share of income, and months of supply.

How to read it: Payment above 28% of gross income fails the lender rule of thumb. Six months of supply is balanced.

<you> !housing
<drillbit>Housing (Q2 2026): median sale $410,700 (-1.3% YoY) | 30y mortgage 6.71% (1y ago 6.50%) | price/income 4.9x (median household income $83,730, 2024)Payment: $2,122/mo at 20% down = 30% of gross median income (28% = stretched) | new-home supply 9.6 months (Jul 2026, 1y ago 9.2; 6 = balanced)Verdict: the median household fails the 28% rule on the median house. Priced out.

Data: FRED MSPUS MORTGAGE30US MEHOINUSA646N MSACSR

!unemploymentU3, U6, participation and employment-population ratio with year-ago values, and the…

U3, U6, participation and employment-population ratio with year-ago values, and the Sahm rule computed live.

How to read it: Sahm rule fires when the 3-month average unemployment rate is 0.5pt above its 12-month low. It has called every recession since 1970.

<you> !unemployment
<drillbit>Unemployment (Jul 2026): U3 4.1% (1y ago 4.1%) | U6 7.9% (1y ago 7.7%) | participation 61.4% (1y ago 62.3%) | emp/pop 58.9% (1y ago 59.7%)Sahm rule: 3-mo avg 4.20% − 12-mo low 4.20% = +0.00pt (≥0.50 fires) → not triggered

Data: FRED UNRATE U6RATE CIVPART EMRATIO

!yields3-month, 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields, the 10y-2y and 10y-3m spreads in basis…

3-month, 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields, the 10y-2y and 10y-3m spreads in basis points, and whether the curve inverted in the past year.

How to read it: Inversion (spread below zero) precedes recessions by 6 to 18 months; the re-steepening is usually when the recession starts.

<you> !yields
<drillbit>Treasuries (Sep 1): 3m 3.92% | 2y 4.39% | 10y 4.79% (1y ago 4.28%) | 30y 5.27%10y−2y: +40bp (1y ago +62bp, 1y low +27bp on Jun 22) | 10y−3m: +87bpVerdict: not inverted at any point in the past year (threshold <0) — no curve signal.

Data: FRED DGS3MO DGS2 DGS10 DGS30

!wagesReal median weekly earnings now, a year ago and in 1979; nominal hourly earnings…

Real median weekly earnings now, a year ago and in 1979; nominal hourly earnings against CPI; productivity growth; and the productivity-to-pay gap since 1979.

How to read it: The gap line is the whole story: output per hour up 140%+, real median pay up about 13%.

<you> !wages
<drillbit>Real median weekly earnings (Q2 2026): $378 in 1982-84$ | 1y ago $373 (+1.3%) | Q1 1979 $335 (+12.8% in 47 years)Nominal AHE (Jul 2026): $37.62/hr +3.2% YoY − CPI 3.5% = real -0.4% | productivity +2.2% YoY (Q2 2026)Since Q1 1979: productivity +142% vs real median pay +13% — a 129pt gap. The difference went to capital, not labour.

Data: FRED LES1252881600Q CES0500000003 CPIAUCSL OPHNFB

!creditConsumer credit and revolving balances with growth, the average card APR and the…

Consumer credit and revolving balances with growth, the average card APR and the implied interest bill, debt service as a share of income, and card delinquency versus a year ago.

How to read it: Rising delinquencies with rising balances is the stress combination.

<you> !credit
<drillbit>Consumer credit (Jun 2026): $5.17T (+2.4% YoY) | revolving $1.35T (+3.8% YoY) @ 20.94% avg card APR (May 2026) ≈ $283B/yr interest if it all revolvesStress: debt service 11.2% of disposable income (Q1 2026, 1y ago 11.1%) | card delinquency 2.85% (Q2 2026, 1y ago 3.04%, -0.19pt)Verdict: delinquencies flat-to-down YoY — households still keeping up.

Data: FRED TOTALSL REVOLSL TERMCBCCALLNS TDSP DRCCLACBS

!moneyM2 with nominal and real growth, velocity, the monetary base, and the Fed balance sheet…

M2 with nominal and real growth, velocity, the monetary base, and the Fed balance sheet against a year ago.

How to read it: M2 growing faster than CPI is real monetary expansion. Balance sheet up year on year means quantitative tightening has ended.

<you> !money
<drillbit>M2 (Jul 2026): $23.2T (+5.4% YoY, real +1.9% after CPI 3.5%) | velocity 1.415 (Q2 2026, 1y ago 1.395) | monetary base $5.52T (-3.8% YoY)Fed balance sheet (Aug 26): $6.73T (1y ago $6.60T, +1.9%)Verdict: balance sheet growing again YoY — QT is over in all but name.

Data: FRED M2SL M2V BOGMBASE WALCL CPIAUCSL

!savingsPersonal saving rate against a year ago, its 25-year average, high and low, and total…

Personal saving rate against a year ago, its 25-year average, high and low, and total personal saving.

How to read it: A rate well below the long-run average means households are spending down buffers.

<you> !savings
<drillbit>Personal saving rate (Jul 2026): 3.0% (1y ago 4.5%) | 25y avg 5.7% | high 31.8% (Apr 2020) | low 1.4% (Jul 2005)Personal saving: $712B/yr SAAR (Jul 2026) | rate is -2.7pt vs the 25y average — buffer gone, one breakdown from broke.

Data: FRED PSAVERT PMSAVE

!manufacturingManufacturing output index, total industrial production, capacity utilisation, factory…

Manufacturing output index, total industrial production, capacity utilisation, factory employment and its 1979 peak.

How to read it: Output index below 100 means less is being made than in 2017.

<you> !manufacturing
<drillbit>Manufacturing (Jul 2026): output index 99.3 (2017=100, +1.3% YoY) | total industrial production 103.0 (+1.1% YoY) | capacity utilisation 76.3% (1y ago 76.4%, -0.1pt)Factory jobs: 12.61M (-14k YoY) | peak 19.55M in Jun 1979 → -36% sinceVerdict: output still below its 2017 level (index <100) — 9 years of no net growth in making things.

Data: FRED IPMAN INDPRO TCU MANEMP

!crashRecession score from five explicit tests: Sahm rule, inverted curve, manufacturing…

Recession score from five explicit tests: Sahm rule, inverted curve, manufacturing output falling, building permits down 10%+, initial claims up 15%+ year on year.

How to read it: Each test shows its value and its trigger. 2+ elevated, 4+ extreme.

<you> !crash
<drillbit>Recession score (Jul 2026 data): 0/5 signals fired — LOW (2+ = elevated, 4+ = extreme)Clear: Sahm +0.00 (fires ≥0.50) | 10y−2y +40bp (fires <0) | mfg output +1.3% YoY (fires <0) | permits +2.4% YoY (fires ≤−10) | claims 4wk 207,250 -10% YoY (fires ≥+15)

Data: FRED UNRATE DGS10 DGS2 IPMAN PERMIT ICSA

🏛️ Central Banks 8

The Fed's weekly H.4.1 release and the ECB's data portal, line by line.

!fedIndex of the Fed commands.

Index of the Fed commands.

How to read it: Pick the plumbing line you care about.

<you> !fed
<drillbit>Fed (H.4.1 weekly): !repo reverse repo + discount window | !liquidity reserves/TGA/net liquidity | !btfp bank term funding | !custody foreign official holdings | !swaps FX swap lines | !fedbs balance sheet

Data: Fed H.4.1 via FRED

!repoOvernight reverse repo balance against a year ago, its 1-year high and 5-year peak;…

Overnight reverse repo balance against a year ago, its 1-year high and 5-year peak; discount-window borrowing and rate; other emergency facilities.

How to read it: Reverse repo is the excess-cash buffer. When it is drained, the next liquidity shock hits bank reserves directly. Discount window rising is banks needing the Fed.

<you> !repo
<drillbit>ON reverse repo (Sep 2): $0.5B | 1y ago $21.1B | 1y high $106.0B | 5y peak (all RRP, weekly) $2,677B on Apr 12 2023 → 0.02% of it leftDiscount window (Aug 26): $4.9B primary credit @ 3.75% | 1y ago $4.2B (+16.7%) | 5y peak $152.9B on Mar 15 2023 | other facilities $0.003BVerdict: RRP buffer drained (<10% of its 1y high) and the window is quiet — the next liquidity shock hits reserves directly.

Data: FRED RRPONTSYD WLRRAL WLCFLPCL WORAL DPCREDIT

!liquidityBank reserves, reverse repo and the Treasury General Account with year-on-year changes,…

Bank reserves, reverse repo and the Treasury General Account with year-on-year changes, net liquidity (Fed assets minus TGA minus RRP), Fed lending and swap lines.

How to read it: Net liquidity is the number the equity market trades on. TGA rising drains it; TGA spending adds to it.

<you> !liquidity
<drillbit>Plumbing (Aug 26): bank reserves $2,917B (1y −$300.0B) | reverse repo $356B (1y −$37.0B) | TGA $959B (1y +$363.6B)Net liquidity (assets − TGA − RRP): $5,415B | 1y ago $5,614B (-3.5%) | Fed lending $5.0B (1y ago $5.7B) + FX swaps $0.12B = 0.17% of reservesVerdict: net liquidity down YoY with lending quiet — draining, not breaking. Yet.

Data: FRED WRBWFRBL WLRRAL WDTGAL WALCL WLCFLL SWPT

!btfpBank Term Funding Program balance, its peak, and status.

Bank Term Funding Program balance, its peak, and status.

How to read it: The 2023 bank-run facility. Zero means fully repaid.

<you> !btfp
<drillbit>BTFP (May 6): $0.00B outstanding (prior week $0.00B) | peak $167.8B on Jan 24 2024 → 0.0% remains | closed to new loans since Mar 2024Verdict: fully repaid. The 2023 bank-run bailout is closed out.

Data: FRED H41RESPPALDKNWW

!custodyTreasuries held in custody at the Fed for foreign official accounts: weekly change,…

Treasuries held in custody at the Fed for foreign official accounts: weekly change, year-ago, and the 5-year peak.

How to read it: A steady decline is reserve diversification. A sharp weekly drop is someone selling.

<you> !custody
<drillbit>Foreign official Treasury custody (Aug 26): $2,615B | week +$29.1B | 1y ago $2,842B (-8.0%) | 5y peak $3,074B on Oct 27 2021 (-14.9% since)Verdict: down on the year, up on the week — slow diversification, not a run.

Data: FRED WMTSECL1

!swapsDollar swap lines outstanding to other central banks with the year-ago value and the…

Dollar swap lines outstanding to other central banks with the year-ago value and the 2020 peak.

How to read it: Above 10% of the 2020 peak means an offshore dollar shortage.

<you> !swaps
<drillbit>FX swap lines (Aug 26): $0.121B outstanding | week −$0.002B | 1y ago $0.040B | peak since Jan 2019 $449B on May 27 2020 → 0.03% of that nowVerdict: dormant (<10% of peak, threshold) — no offshore dollar shortage.

Data: FRED SWPT

!fedbsFed total assets against a year ago and the 2022 peak, then the asset and liability…

Fed total assets against a year ago and the 2022 peak, then the asset and liability breakdown: Treasuries, MBS, loans, reserves, reverse repo, currency, TGA.

How to read it: QT progress is the peak-to-now line.

<you> !fedbs
<drillbit>Fed balance sheet (Aug 26): $6,731B | 1y ago $6,603B (+1.9%) | 5y peak $8,965B on Apr 13 2022 → QT so far −$2,235B (-24.9%)Assets: Treasuries $4,546B | MBS $1,914B | loans $5.0B | other $266BLiabilities: bank reserves $2,917B | reverse repo $356B | currency $2,478B | TGA $959B | other $20B

Data: FRED WALCL TREAST WSHOMCB WLCFLL WRBWFRBL WLRRAL WCICL WDTGAL

!ecbECB policy rates, total assets, gold at market value, MRO and TLTRO lending, TARGET2…

ECB policy rates, total assets, gold at market value, MRO and TLTRO lending, TARGET2 balances for Germany, Italy, Spain, France and the Netherlands, and a fragmentation verdict.

How to read it: Germany's TARGET2 claim above €1T means capital is sitting in the north. The 2012 crisis peaked near €750B.

<you> !ecb
<drillbit>ECB rates: MRO 2.40% | Deposit 2.25% | Marginal lending 2.65% (since 17 Jun 2026)Balance sheet: €5,915B total assets | Gold €1,233B (20.8%, marked to market) | MRO lending €18B | TLTRO fully repaid (wk 35 2026)TARGET2 (Jul 2026): DE +€1,037B | IT -€331B | ES -€430B | FR -€182B | NL +€36B | net imbalance €1,074B (sum of creditors)Verdict: Germany claim €1,037B > €1T = fragmentation stress (2012 crisis peak ~€750B). Capital still parked north. | TLTRO €0B + MRO €18B = banks not leaning on the ECB

Data: ECB Data Portal FM, ILM, TGB datasets

🧠 Composite Intelligence 5

Cross-source indicators scored against their own five-year history. Nothing here uses a made-up threshold.

!regimeMacro regime classifier.

Macro regime classifier. Growth (manufacturing, claims, Sahm, permits), inflation (CPI momentum, core, oil, dollar) and liquidity (net liquidity, real rates, curve, credit spreads) each scored as a percentile of their own history.

How to read it: Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation or Deflationary bust, with the one input closest to flipping the regime.

<you> !regime
<drillbit>Regime: Goldilocks (liquidity tailwind) — growth +0.42 (71st pct) | inflation -0.23 (39th) | liquidity +0.22 (61st) monthly data Jul 2026Strongest +: HY OAS 2.66% (5th pct, inverted → +0.91) | Strongest −: CPI 3m-12m -3.05pp (4th pct, Jul 2026 → -0.92)Flip watch: inflation axis at -0.23; nearest input Dollar YoY -1.3% (37th pct). Needs a 45-pct-point move, outside its 5y range: no single input flips this to Reflation alone. Entrenched.

Data: FRED IPMAN ICSA UNRATE PERMIT CPIAUCSL CPILFESL DCOILWTICO DTWEXBGS WALCL WTREGEN WLRRAL FEDFUNDS DGS10 DGS2 BAMLH0A0HYM2

!stressFinancial conditions composite 0-100: high-yield and investment-grade spreads, VIX,…

Financial conditions composite 0-100: high-yield and investment-grade spreads, VIX, curve, funding spread, discount window, dollar momentum, reserves to GDP, each as a 5-year percentile.

How to read it: Under 25 calm, 25-50 normal, 50-75 elevated, over 75 crisis. Shows the top contributors and the one-month change.

<you> !stress
<drillbit>Stress 46/100 (normal; 5y percentile composite of 8 inputs) — top contributors: Reserves/GDP 9.0% (99th pct), SOFR-EFFR +3bp (83rd pct)HY OAS 2.66% 5th | VIX 15.2 23rd | 10y-3m +0.87% inv 21st | SOFR-EFFR +3bp 83rd | Discount window $4.9B 66th | Dollar 3m -0.1% 38th | IG OAS 0.81% 33rd | Reserves/GDP 9.0% inv 99th1m change: 52 → 46 (-6 pts, elevatednormal). Normal band, moving <10 pts/month: nothing broken yet.

Data: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 BAMLC0A0CM VIXCLS DGS10 DGS3MO SOFR DFF WLCFLPCL DTWEXBGS WRBWFRBL GDP

!coverDays of supply, the way oil analysts measure tightness: commercial crude over refinery…

Days of supply, the way oil analysts measure tightness: commercial crude over refinery inputs, SPR over net imports, distillate and gasoline over demand, each with its 5-year percentile; import dependence; and oil spending as a share of GDP.

How to read it: Low percentile = thin cover. Distillate at a low percentile is the diesel pinch. Oil spend above about 4% of GDP has preceded every US recession since 1970.

<you> !cover
<drillbit>Days of cover (wk of Aug 28): crude 24.3d (p3, -0.7 y/y) of refinery runs | SPR 125.3d (p14, -16.3 y/y) of net crude imports | 5yr pctile, low = tightDistillate 30.7d (p55, +0.0 y/y) | Gasoline 23.1d (p7, -0.9 y/y) | Refinery util 98.0% (p100)Net import dependence 13.1% of runs (2,287 kb/d net) | US demand 20,449 kb/d (4wk) YoY -3.9% | Oil burden $681B/yr @ WTI $91.28 = 2.1% of GDP (>4% preceded every US recession since 1970 — historical rule, not fetched)Verdict: Crude cover 24.3 days, p3 of 5 years (-0.7 y/y) — bottom decile, refiners are running down feedstock: runs must slow or imports must rise. SPR at p14: the backstop is thin. Every week of draw from here is a week of shortage.

Data: EIA WCESTUS1 WCSSTUS1 WDISTUS1 WGTSTUS1 WCRRIUS2 WCRIMUS2 WCREXUS2 WRPUPUS2 WDIUPUS2 WGFUPUS2 WPULEUS3 · CNBC @CL.1 · FRED GDP

!whobuysWho financed the last twelve months of US federal borrowing: the Fed, foreign…

Who financed the last twelve months of US federal borrowing: the Fed, foreign investors, domestic private buyers, or government trust funds, in dollars and as a share of new issuance.

How to read it: When the Fed's share is negative and domestic private buyers absorb most of the issuance, the marginal lender is money funds and households demanding yield. When the Fed's share turns positive, it is financing the deficit again.

<you> !whobuys
<drillbit>Who bought the debt (4q to Q4 2025, newest quarter in all series): +$2,012B new public debt → Fed −$101B (−5%) | foreign +$652B (+32%) | domestic private +$1,461B (+73%) | intragov +$284B (not public debt)Share of $30,871B public debt (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024): Fed 14.7% (16.0%) | foreign 30.0% (29.9%) | domestic 55.3% (54.1%) | wkly Fed Treasuries $4,546B +$344B 52wk (Aug 26 '26 vs Aug 27 '25) | wkly foreign-official custody $2,615B −$227B 52wk (Aug 26 '26 vs Aug 27 '25)Verdict: $2,012B had to be absorbed; the marginal buyer is domestic money funds, banks and households while the Fed shrinks — fiscal dominance in slow motion (rule: domestic ≥70% of new debt with Fed flat/shrinking) weekly H.4.1 already shows the Fed +$344B in Treasuries over 52wk to Aug 26 '26 — the quarterly picture is stale, the Fed is turning buyer

Data: FRED GFDEBTN FYGFDPUN FDHBFRBN FDHBFIN FDHBPIN TREAST WMTSECL1

!hoursThe price of things in hours of work at the average private wage: a gallon of gas, a…

The price of things in hours of work at the average private wage: a gallon of gas, a barrel of oil, an ounce of gold, one unit of the S&P 500, the median new home, one bitcoin, now versus one and ten years ago.

How to read it: Dollars lie; hours don't. The verdict names what got most expensive in labour terms over a decade.

<you> !hours
<drillbit>Hours of work (avg private wage $37.62/hr, Jul 2026; 1y = Sep 2025 @ $36.70, 10y = Sep 2016 @ $25.77): gallon of gas $4.07 0.11h (1y 0.09, 10y 0.09) | barrel WTI $91.28 2.4h (1y 1.8, 10y 1.7) | oz gold $4,483 119h (52wk fut 95-148h at today's wage)S&P 500 unit 7,756 206h (1y 176, 10y 85) | median new home $410,700 (Q2 2026) 10,917h = 5.2 yrs full-time (1y 5.5, 10y 5.8) | 1 BTC $81,254 2,160h (full-time year = 2,080h)Verdict (10y change in hours of work, 4 items with history; gold/BTC excluded, no FRED history): dearest S&P 500 +143%, cheapest new home -9% — wages bought less S&P 500 every year while new home got cheaper: assets ran, labour walked.

Data: FRED CES0500000003 GASREGW DCOILWTICO SP500 MSPUS · CNBC XAU= @CL.1 .SPX BTC.CM=

👁 Channel 1

The one command that is about the room rather than the market.

!seen NICKWhen a nick was last seen in this channel and what they last said.

When a nick was last seen in this channel and what they last said. Reports the last join, part, quit, kick or netsplit with its reason, and the last public line, each with a relative age and a date once it is older than two days.

How to read it: Tracking is per channel: asking in one channel never reports another. A nick change is followed, so asking for an old nick tells you who they became and what happened to them since. A nick the bot does not know gets up to three suggestions ("Did you mean: gecko_x2, gecko_x8, or eggo?") matched on edit distance plus leetspeak and suffix folding, so geko finds gecko_x2 and sh4rp finds SharP-. Wildcards work too: !seen gecko* lists the matches by recency.

<you> !seen gecko_x2
<drillbit>gecko_x2 was last seen 3d 13h ago (on Sep 6) saying: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQzLbVcO53U"

Data: join/part/quit/kick/nick/message tracking, scripts/seen.dat · seeded from logs/peakoil.log, 2025-07-19 onward

Suggested Workflows

Chain commands together. Click a step to jump to it.

🔍 Morning check

Indices, metals and oil in three lines.

🛢️ Oil supply picture

Production, days of cover, inventories versus normal, and the reserve.

💀 Crisis stack

Where we are in the cycle, how tight conditions are, tail-risk tests, recession tests.

🏛️ Follow the money

Who is funding the deficit, what it costs, and what the Fed is doing about it.

⏱️ Real prices

Everything priced in labour and in gold instead of dollars.

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What is Peak Oil?

Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum rate, after which production enters terminal decline. It's not about "running out" of oil — it's about the end of cheap, easy oil.

The concept was first articulated by geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956, who correctly predicted US oil production would peak around 1970. The math is simple: oil is a finite resource, extraction follows a bell curve, and we've found most of the easy stuff.

What makes peak oil dangerous isn't the geology — it's the economics. Modern civilization runs on cheap energy. When extraction costs rise faster than the economy can absorb them, you get inflation, recession, and eventually systemic breakdown. That's what we track here.

Learn more on Wikipedia →